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【English /日本語】Read an English book📖英語の本を読もう📚Sway―chapter#4 The Diagnosis Bias

英語でSway を読もう📖#4


For English learners!

Hello everyone, how’s your English learning journey going?😃 Reading an English book is sometimes a long journey. You might inadvertently stop if you are alone. But no worries. You are at the right place already. I would like to explore an English book here so that you can try reading the book with me. We are not alone. Let’s enjoy a fun time reading!

The book, which I picked up this time, is called Sway, published by Ori Brafman and Rom Brafman. When I read this book for the first time, I was surprised that contrast that topic is academic and interesting, the volume of the book was not that big!!! The Amazon Kindle link below allows you to read chapter 1. Today, I am covering chapter 4.

You can check out my recommending strategy of reading as well as a bit of information about this book with a link below. Okay then, let’s get started📖






Ch.4 Michael Jordan and the First-Date Interview

🪂第4章 マイケル・ジョーダンと初デート型採用面接

Grasp the structure🪂構成を把握する

To grasp the chapter, you just try to see its hierarchical configuration. I strongly recommend drawing it either physically or virtually.


NBA Draft Pick
  • 4 players of draftee of 1984 ranked in a top fifty basketball players of all time
    • Charles Barkley
    • Hakeem Olajuwon
    • John Stockton
    • Michael Jordan
  • Portland Trail Blazers had a chance to pick Michael Jordan but selected Sam Bowie instead.
Two economists findings
  • Barry Staw and Ha Hoang
  • developed a clever empirical method for judging who the best players are
  • revealed a psychological force that is born with value attribution and diverges from it and pushes us the shore of rationality
What affects playing time?
  • ⭕scoring
  • ✖toughness
  • ✖quickness
  • ⭕draft order predict playing time
What can one’s draft order predict?
  • a player’s likelihood of getting traded to another team
  • the longevity of one’s career
What does their finding mean?
  • Rationally, one’s draft order shouldn’t matter, once they are picked.
  • The draft number becomes a sway called “the diagnosis bias.”
  • Once a player is tagged with their draft order, most coaches cannot ignore it

NBA ドラフト
  • 1984年のNBAドラフトは史上最高の当たり年と言われており、エントリー選手の中のなんと4人が『NBAの偉大な50人』に選ばれている
    • チャールズ・バークレー
    • アキーム・オラジュウォン
    • ジョン・ストックトン
    • マイケル・ジョーダン
  • ポートランド・トレイル・ブラザーズはマイケル・ジョーダンを選ぶチャンスがあったものの、代わりにサム・ボウイを選択した
  • バリー・スタウとハ・ホアン
  • 最高の選手が誰であるかを判断するための賢い実証的方法を開発
  • 価値帰属とともに生まれ、そこから分岐し、私たちを合理性の淵に押しやる心理的な力を明らかにした
  • ⭕得点
  • ✖忍耐強さ
  • ✖素早さ
  • ⭕ドラフト指名順位:その選手がドラフトで何巡目に選出されたか
  • プレーヤーが別のチームにトレードされる可能性
  • 選手の寿命
  • 当然のことながら、ドラフト指名順位は、選択後の選手人生に重要ではない
  • ドラフト指名順位のラベルは「診断バイアス」と呼ばれる判断の揺らぎを生む
  • 一度選手にドラフト指名順位のラベルが貼られると、ほとんどのコーチはその情報に影響されてしまう

Interviewer’s tendency
  • rely on arbitrary information
  • have no clear format; unstructured interview
  • ‘first-date’ interview➜ a small correlation with candidate’s performance
  • hiring managers are prone to ignoring highly relevant information
  • tend to focus on if a candidate is a good fit; compare with a notion of the ideal employee
  • tend not to ask questions that provide helpful information
  • a strong feeling that you cannot achieve accuracy in selection without interview
  • difficult to turn back on the first-date interview because people believe in their ability of seeing an applicant
Mirror mirror effect
  • Tendency: people often base the image of the ideal candidate on themselves
  • Reality: there is a compelling case that it would be better off hiring someone unlike them
  • overestimate our ability to form an objective opinion
  • hard to convince someone that they are not doing well as they think
  • overly confident in our predictive abilities
  • overly optimistic about the future
The Joe Friday solution
  • restrain yourself from delving into first-date
  • focus on specific past experience and “job-related hypothetical scenarios”
  • Joe Friday, just- the-facts-ma’am approach: 6 times more effective
  • squelch questions like…
    • invite the candidate to predict the future
    • reconstruct the past
    • ponder life’s big questions
  • No interview: an aptitude test predicts performance just as well as a structured interview
  • making top candidates first, then use an unstructured interview to sell them on taking the job

  •  気まぐれな情報に依存する
  • 明確なフォーマットがない;形式化されていないインタビュー
  • 「初デート型」面接: 採用候補者の実力を測ることにあまり関係しない内容に陥る
  • 採用担当者は、関連性の高い情報を無視しがちな傾向に陥る
  • 候補者がその職場に馴染む人材かどうかにより焦点を当てる傾向がある(理想的な従業員の概念と比較している)
  • 役立つ情報をもたらすような質問をしない傾向がある
  • 面接なしで採用プロセスを進めることができないという強い思い込みがある
  • 自分に人を見る目があると思い込んでいるため、「初デート型」面接をしないことは難しい
  •  傾向:人々は理想的な候補者のイメージについて、自分をベースにしがちである
  • 現実:自分と違うタイプを雇った方がうまくいくという研究結果もある
  •  自分は客観的な意見を持つことができると過大評価しがち
  • 誰かが何かをうまくできていない時に、それを伝えて理解させるのは至難
  • 自分の予測能力に自信を持ちすぎている
  • 未来に対して過度に楽観的である
  •  「初デート型」面接を避ける
  • 過去の特定の経験や、仕事に関連する架空のシナリオに焦点を当てる
  • ジョー・フライデーの事実に焦点を当てたアプローチは6倍効果的
  • 耳障りな質問を避ける
    • 候補者に将来を予測させるような質問
    • 過去を再構築させるような質問
    • 人生で熟考するような大きな質問
  • 面接無し:適性検査は面接と同様に候補者の実力を予測する力がある
  • 最初に候補者を絞っておいてから、彼等に応募職が魅力的な仕事であることをアピールする場としての「初デート型」面接をする
  • inability to reconsider one’s judgment once they’ve made them.
  • it is used for organizing and simplifying one’s information and experiences by ignoring a lot of other things
  • once you get a label in mind, you don’t notice things that don’t fit within the categories that do make a difference
  • labeling is the notion of the blinders: it prevents you from seeing what’s clearly before your face
  • causes you to distort or even ignore objective data
  • arbitrarily assigning labels
Example 1: an innocuous word
  • Background
    • at Economics class at MIT
    • a substitute instructor’s description
    • questionnaire if they like the sub.
  • Group1: he is considered to be “very warm”
    • good-natured
    • considerate of others
    • informal
    • sociable
    • popular
    • humorous
    • humane
  • Group2: he is considered to be “rather cold”
    • self-centered
    • formal
    • unsociable
    • unpopular
    • irritable
    • humorless
    • ruthless
  • Result
    • you’d think the students were responding to two completely different instructors
    • a single word possibly sour the relationship before it begins
    • swayed by the description
Example 2: lovesick college students
  • Background
    • two Canadian psychologists
    • college freshmen who’d recently become involved in a new romantic relationship
    • assess the quality of their relationships
  • Ask students the prospect
    • Do you think you’ll be together with your partner in two months?
    • tend to be optimistic
  • Ask others the prospect
    • interview subject’s roommate and family
    • ask the quality of the relationship and the prospect
    • less optimistic
  • Result
    • in 6 months: 61% last
    • in a year: 48% last
    • judgemental roommates and nosy parents really predicted a better
    • Although students did recognize issues, they simply ignored them when it came to making predictions about longivity: dismissal of the facts
Example 3: Special Loan Offer
  • Background
    • in South Africa
    • advertised personal loans to 50,000 customers
    • crafted several variations
    • included different interest rates
  • Result
    • Competitor comparisons: not affect
    • Giveaway offers: not affect
    • Fanciful photos: more likely to sign up as much as dropping the interest rate 4.5% points
    • made diagnostic errors in evaluating the attractiveness of the loan because they didn’t focus on the important data
    • swayed by the picture of the woman

  •  一度判断を下してしまうと、それを考え直すことができない
  • 情報や経験を整理し単純化するために、他の多くの情報を無視する傾向
  • 一度ラベルを貼り付けてしまったら、価値があるカテゴリーに当てはまらないと判断したものには気付かくなる
  • ラベリングは目隠しのようなもの:あなたの顔の前にはっきりとある何かでさえをも見えなくする
  • 客観的なデータを歪めたり、無視したりする原因になる
  • 気まぐれに貼り付けられたラベル
  • 背景

  • 背景
    • MITの経済学クラスにて
    • 代理講師を登場させるが、事前に説明を加える
    • 学生の代理講師への印象をテストする
  • 1グループ目:彼はとても温かい人と思われている
    • 善良な人
    • 他人への思いやりがある
    • 砕けた人柄
    • 社交的
    • 人気がある
    • ユーモアがある
    • 人間味のある人
  • 2グループ目:彼は、ちょっと冷たい人と思われている
    • 自己中心的
    • 堅苦しい
    • 内向的
    • 人気がない
    • イライラしがちな人
    • ユーモアがない
    • 冷酷だ
  • 結果
    • 学生達はまるで二人の完全に別人の講師へ反応しているかのように見える
    • 印象を持つ前の「一言」は、関係を悪化させる可能性を持つ
    • 事前に与えられた説明によって印象が左右される

  • 背景
    • 2人のカナダ人心理学者
    • 最近新しい恋愛関係を始めた大学1年生
    • 彼らの恋愛関係を評価する
  • 学生本人に展望を尋ねる
    • 二ヶ月後も交際が続いていると思うか
    • ⇨楽観的な傾向を示す
  • 学生の関係者に展望を尋ねる
    • 被験者のルームメイトや家族にインタビュー
    • 学生の恋愛関係の質や展望について
    • ⇨楽観的ではない
  • 結果
    • 6ヵ月後、61%が関係を維持
    • 1年後、48%が関係を維持
    • 判断力のあるルームメイトや詮索好きな両親は、より良い予測をした
    • 学生は問題を認識しつつも、交際の持続性を予測する際には、それらの要素を無視した:事実の却下

  • 背景
    • 南アフリカ
    • 50,000人の顧客に個人ローンを宣伝
    • いくつかのバリエーションの広告を作成
    • 異なるローン金利で作成
  • 結果
    • 競合他社との比較:影響なし
    • 景品オファー:影響なし
    • 架空の写真:登録する可能性が高まる=金利を4.5%ポイント下げるのと同じくらいの効果
    • 顧客は重要なデータに注目していなかったので、ローンの魅力を判断する際に診断エラーを起こしてしまった
    • 女性の写真に踊らされた

Summarize the chapter concisely🪂章を簡潔にまとめる

To summarize, check the hierarchical configuration and make sentences with important points of each.


When people encounter a new object, they assign its value based on what they perceived, which is called value attribution. Meanwhile, once they’ve made a diagnosis, they experience an inability to reconsider the judgment, which is called diagnosis bias. This label prevents them from seeing what’s clearly before their faces.

From the statistic of NBA players, you can see that their draft order numbers influence people’s perceptions and it consequently affects players’ longevity. From the study of job interviews, it is seen that people’s perceptions give too much credence to irrelevant factors that they consider more important, and it leads to poor outcomes. The most difficult psychological force people experience is spontaneous confidence in their own decision-making. It distorts them from seeing objective data.



Make questions to discuss🪂ディスカッション用の質問を作ろう

To discuss, make questions. It gives you a great topic to talk about in English.


Thematic question テーマに関する質問

What is the message beyond this presentation? What are the greater issues or questions this piece deals with?

The presentation is not directly referenced in the question. There are many possible answers found outside of the presentation, but it’s a starting point.



My opinion: Being confident in one’s own decision seems to be crucial to survive in life. The problem is, would it be possible that we can be confident while being cautious that confidence prevents us from seeing other objective data? Being confident means picking one choice and trusting in it. If you are still cautious of something, then it is not trusted. Therefore, it is not realistic that people can find a solution against the diagnostic bias.


five questions for discussion🪂ディスカッション用の5つの質問

How does this make me feel? What does it remind me of?

There are many correct answers that are related to one’s experience; they can be found outside of the text/speech.

  • Have you ever…?
  • Does it make you angry when…?
  • Which part did you like?
  • How hard was this to understand?



  • こんな経験ありますか
  • こんなとき、怒った気持ちになりますか
  • どのパートが気に入りましたか
  • これを理解するのは難しかったですか

What does it say?

One correct answer is found in the text.

  • Who is …?
  • What happens first?
  • Where are …?
  • What is the difinition of this word?



  • これは誰?
  • 何が最初に起きた?
  • これはどこですか?
  • この言葉の定義はなんですか?

What does it mean? How are the parts connected? what is the reason for people’s actions?

There is more than one possible answer, but the viewer’s opinion is based directly on the text.

  • Why did the speaker…?
  • What can we say about the speaker’s point of view?
  • What is the significance of the title?
  • What did the speaker mean when they said…?



  • どうして話者は...?
  • 話者の視点について、どんなことが言えますか。
  • タイトルにはどんな意味があるでしょう。
  • 話者が...といったのはどういう意味でしょう。

What is the message beyond this presentation? What are the greater issues or questions this piece deals with?

The presentation is not directly referenced in the question. There are many possible answers found outside of the presentation, but it’s a starting point.

  • How do people…?
  • Why do people…?
  • What is the truth about…?



  • 人々はどうやって...?
  • どうして人々は...?
  • ...の真実は何でしょう?

How effective is the presentation in whole or in part? Why did the speaker/author make these choices and how well do they work?

Many possible answers can be found outside of the presentation but it’s a reference.

  • Is it realistic when …?
  • How does the speaker use … to show …?
  • Would this be better if …?
  • Is the speaker biased towards/against…?



  • この箇所は現実味がありますか。
  • 話者がこの...をどのように表現しましたか。
  • もし...であればもっとよかったですか。
  • 話者は...の考え方に偏っていますか。

Expressions and terms🪂覚えておきたい単語・表現

Pick some terms that you are unfamiliar with from sentences you high-lightened and memorize them because you need them to discuss this chapter!!


termexample sentence
predict“Joe Friday” interviews are six times more effective than first-date interviews at predicting a candidate’s job performance.
optimisticwe all become overly confident in our predictive abilities and overly optimistic about the future
contradictwe often ignore all evidence that contradicts what we want to believe
overcomeit’s harder to overcome this sway than we might think.

This chapter has explored the further depth of the force of value attribution. Once we assign a value to something, it would be super hard for us to remove. Because we are very confident on own decision-making. We even don’t consider this process as we do make a decision. It is more like, once you think, you just naturally believe then hardly wonder it. What do you think, can you come up with any solution against this force?